Turnover Margins Win Championships: Just ask Green Bay (11/14/11)

There are a lot of statistics thrown around by NFL analysts figuring out what will win a game. QB rating, running back rushing yards, defensive Red Zone stops, etc, but there is one statistic that helps shed some light on what wins Championships — turnover margin. It’s simple. Turn the ball over less than your opponent and you will win.

The Green Bay Packers are truly proving this rule to be true as both their 2010 Super Bowl-winning season, and their current 8-0 season shows how important turnover margins are.

Below are four charts showing statistics for the Packers. The first two are point differentials for the Packers in 2011 compared to 2010. The third and fourth charts compare turnover margins during the 2010 and 2011 seasons.

  • Even though the Packers lost six games in 2010, they never lost by more than 4 points.
  • The Packers have a +11 turnover margin this season and had a +16 turnover margin in 2010.
  • Green Bay had a negative turnover margin in five of their six losses in 2010. They had a +3 margin in the Super Bowl against the Steelers.
  • They do not have a single game with a negative turnover margin this season.
Click each chart to open in full screen

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